Travel Ban to Cuba Likely to be Lifted– Then What?
01. Apr, 2009 
21 Comments
I don’t normally talk politics on here, but this subject fascinates me, so bear with me.
A bi-partisan bill was introduced into the House and Senate earlier this year, that would lift the 50 year ban on travel to Cuba. Today the sponsoring senators reported that Congress is ready. In political-speak this means they’ve talked to enough senators to know that if it went for a vote, it would pass. Soon, Americans will be able to travel to Cuba. Legally.
An estimated 3 million Americans would take them up on the offer.
To put that into perspective, there are currently about 1 million tourists from around the world that travel to Cuba each year. We would multiple that by four. A 2002 study predicted a $1.2-1.6 billion travel industry would be created overnight. 23,000 new jobs.
Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself, but this brings up a lot of questions, namely:
What will this mean for Cuba?
I have a prediction. Obama requested that the Cuba travel restriction be looked at– i.e. get rid of it. But why? Personally, I think he wants to lift the trade embargo. Lifting the travel restriction is the first step, but after that, it seems inevitable. Think about it. If you go to Cuba as a tourist, can you bring back a t-shirt? How about a box of Cuban cigars? Will they be searching 3 million tourists for contraband? Or go further than that. Currently US companies can’t do business with Cuba. But when the hoards arrive, they need to be fed, entertained, housed, and transported. Are there enough cars? Building materials? Food? Technology? If you’re traveling to Cuba on vacation, will you be blocked from checking your US email?
Someone needs to supply Cuba with the goods and services to meet their new demand. Will that business go straight to foreign companies or will US based firms start lobbying Congress to get their share? What about US Cruise companies, can they dock in Havana? Or travel agents booking hotels, flights, tours? Especially if you consider that opening up travel to Cuba could decrease travel to US destinations– folks aren’t going to take more vacations, and a trip to Cuba might look better than say, Miami. In effect we’re shifting travel dollars away from US companies.
If you lift the travel restriction, you have loosened the trade embargo.
It’s not a long leap of logic to think the rest of it could unravel too. The trade embargo hasn’t worked. It’s been 50 years. And having a “sort-of” embargo, where you funnel a billion dollars into their economy but prevent the import of Cuban products (like cigars) is a watered down version of an unsuccessful tactic. So how long will it be until we say, “what’s the point?”
So Cuba is opened to travel, but what will the tourists find?
Right now? A crumbling infrastructure, a frustrating lack of goods, limited accommodations, outdated technology. I’m not sure how they will handle the influx. Will they move Cubanos further away from the cities in order to house the tourists? Will they allow private enterprise? Will the government create the infrastructure? When I visited Cuba earlier this year, I remember watching the tourists walk by the major sites, and thought to myself– imagine if every person here was suddenly 3 or 4 people. It would be staggering.
What about the Cubanos?
Here’s what we know: tourists bring money. Selling things on the street is already big business. Some people have reported doctors quitting their practice to become waiters because they make more in tips. But if you triple or quadruple the tourist volume, more and more people will make their living either selling things on the black market, working in the service industry or worse, the sex trade. Part of what has worked for Fidel, is that everyone is equally poor in Cuba. But if you can make $5 an hour selling stuff on the street, you will have a drastically different standard of living than the $20/mo average wage. So will Cubanos become backdoor capitalists?
Is it possible to destabilize a country, simply by going there?
I’m excited for the travel restriction to be lifted. But I’ve been to Cuba, I’ve seen how they live so I’m worried for them and how this will impact their lives. This isn’t as straight forward as opening up the floodgates. It’s been 50 years, and it’s wonderful that we’re removing the restriction, but I hope it’s done with some care and thought. And if it becomes necessary, the US should be willing to assist Cuba with any of the consequences of our arrival. I would hate to hear that Cubanos went without anything because of the new tourism or that they were unduly taken advantage of by predatory companies.
If you haven’t been to Cuba, now might be a really good time to go. One thing is for sure, it will never be the same again.
Good questions. Tough questions. Sadly, I don’t have a clue, but it makes me feel happy and somehow I think it is a good thing. Yes, things will change, but that is the nature of life.
The whole world is in the midst of a HUGE change right now and change is not always comfortable, more often than not, pain is part of the process.
But greater freedom has to be a good thing and I am going to trust, because I suppose I have a basic belief system that everything is unfolding perfectly, even the imperfect things.
I was all over the former USSR in 1988,( even in Baku, Azerbaijan and rural Georgia etc) when tremendous change was about to rock their world forever.East Germany and all of the USSR looked & felt like a black and white photo from the 30′s or 40′s.
Things got very bad before they got better. In fact, by a strange set of circumstances my family ended up saving one family in Czechnia during that ethnic cleansing time and got her & family out of the country.
She is a professor and now we are trying to get back to Russia to meet in person ( after being an expat for many years, she returned to Russia).
Long story short, we do not know where life will lead us, but things have a way of working out. Hopefully, this will be a positive for both the US and Cuba.
You will always have your special memories of how it was before the change!
I’ve been following this lately, if only because being Canadian, the idea of travel restrictions seems a bit weird to me especially over something like “your economy is different than ours” or whatever the problem is. You ask some really good questions and actually ask what this will mean for the people who live in the country. A lot of what I have read so far carry a weird colonialist weight, like “oh new white sand to explore! yayz!”, as if no one lives there and if people do, it’s not up to them.
And never apologize about exploring these politically centered travel issues! This was so easy to read and well thought out. If anything, you should write more about this sort of thing.
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I read an article about this myself earlier today. It too brought up the point that Cuba is not ready to quadruple its tourist influx. It also went on to say that they are not going to make any changes to reflect the sudden increase as of right now. I can only imagine dozens of cruise ships lining up over night, and almost shudder at the thought.
I would really like to get there before the cruise crowd makes port, 1 million people is better than 4 million! While I am excited at the prospect of being able to legally go, I was kinda hoping to travel there before the ban was lifted even if that meant to do it not so legally.
Just read this quote:
” Daniel Erikson, author of “The Cuba Wars,” said one problem with lifting the travel ban is the trade embargo, which stops U.S. companies from doing business in Cuba.
“So you would have American tourists traveling to Cuba driving around on Chinese buses, staying at Spanish hotels, eating Canadian food,” Erikson said, adding, “The only McDonald’s I’ve ever seen in Cuba is at the military base at Guantanamo Bay.”"
Although the guide sounds like he’s being flip– do we actually want a McD’s in Cuba? but it will be interesting…
Here’s some answers to your questions and some corrections to your post.
President Obama did not ask congress to look into the travel restrictions for tourists to go to America. During the campaign he promised to loosen restrictions on family travel to Cuba for Cuban-Americans but to maintain the greater embargo. He did not need congressional approval to do since those tightened restrictions were an executive order from 2004. They could be undone with an executive order.
Secondly, Cuba can only handle about 2.5 million tourists per year with its current infrastructure. They are currently running at about 90% of capacity. The new demand for accommodations in Cuba (if the 3 million estimate is correct) with the limited inventory of Hotel rooms means only one thing. The price of each hotel night will rise. In the long run Cuba will try to build additional infrastructure to handle more tourists but imagine how long it takes to build a hotel in a capitalist country and then think about doing it in a communist one.
Nothing is going to be “created overnight”.
In terms of feeding and transporting tourists, there are plenty of foreign companies that are already doing business with the regime that provide those services. You can’t pretend that the United States is the only source of technology, cars, buses, and capital.
If you can’t check your US email in Cuba it’s because the regime is blocking US servers, not because of the embargo.
Your question about the regime wanting to move Cubans out of tourist destinations like the big cities is an interesting one. That may be the preferred situation for the regime but history shows the opposite will happen. People from the interior of the country will be drawn to the cities to try to get some dollars however they can. Cuba is one of the few countries that restricts movements of its own people within its borders. The result is that Havana is home to hundreds of thousands of “illegal immigrants”.
Most of those vendors you see in Cuba are either licensed (and heavily taxed) or working without licenses and risk arrest. The regime is not interested in allowing people to make money based on their own merit. It’s a communist dictatorship.
All of those thousands of jobs that will be eventually created (not overnight) will be jobs that pay what typical Cuban jobs pay (About $20 a month). Some people might get tips and hustle to make more money but they are violating the Cuban law and are at risk of arrest.
U.S. tourism will no more liberate Cubans than European or Canadian tourism has. The regime has implemented mechanisms to mitigate the “corrupting” influence of tourism.
I think your worries are in the wrong place. You should worry about the hundreds of political prisoners that are rotting away in Cuba like Dr. Oscar Elias Biscet. American tourists will go down and frolic in the ocean and leave with their dumb Che Guevara t-shirts and those people and the rest of the Cuban populace will continue to suffer.
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I’m all for lifting the travel ban and the trade embargo, but I want it to be done in a way that keeps the environment in mind. If US companies suddenly start investing in Cuba, then there go all the beaches! They’ll be walled-off private compounds the way they are in Mexico. I hope this process is done slowly for the sake of the Cubans and for the sake of the Cuban environment.
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You raise some terrific questions here, Christine. Without a crystal ball, I don’t think any of us can answer them, but it will be interesting to follow what happens. This is one of those moments in history where events could branch off in unforeseen ways. At least in the short term, I think the influx of tourists will be quite a strain on the infrastructure of Cuba and probably frustrating and painful to a certain degree to its residents. But…in the long run, I can’t help but think it has to be a positive thing for them–at least financially. They just need to be very, very careful not to let US brands culturally colonize them, which I’m sure will be the temptation once that market opens up. Because once that process starts, it’s nearly impossible to reverse.
When you were in Cuba, did you talk to any of the residents about how they would feel about opening up the country to the US? Did they provide you with any insights about how that might be received by Cubans?
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@Gray: Yes, I talked to some folks and I think everyone wants the embargo lifted. It means more money for their country and a better standard of living for everyone. I mean that’s what Fidel always says… All of our problems are because of the embargo. There are even billboards–”The US Embargo costs us in one hour, what it would cost to do all of the xrays for the year for the whole country”. So there is a very strong feeling that they want this lifted.
But on the other hand, I don’t think they can even imagine what it will be like. As a tourist, visiting, and who has been to other places in the world, you know what a crowded, poorly managed tourist destination looks like.
Hello, I’m eastern european and have just returned from Cuba, two weeks ago. The articol I find it rather funny. It almost assumes that US lifting travel ban for its citizens will mean a totally different Cuba, economically, socially etc.
The articol describes an amazing extra 1 billion dollar touristic potential. But it ignores the fact that, presently, Cuba is making ~ 5 billion $ out of tourism. The luxury hotels in Varadero are at the same level as Mexico or Bahamas and …are packed with tourists already. French, Spanish and Italian companies have heavily invested in Cuba in touristic industry and got the best hotel spots.
The goods required by tourists are already present there. European and Canadian tourists are floodind the island and have start buying property through Cuban friends. I found all possible brands from drinking to foods in shops. Sounds funny to be able to eat Haagen Dazs and Oreo’s in Havana, but, the products are available.
After the travel ban lift, I doubt it there will be too many US citizens travelling there. Reason ? Because the cubans are hearing for 50 years that the reason of their poverty is coming from US. As a European, the reaction I got from hotel workers just by showing my American Express credit card will pt off any American citizen to ever want to travel in Cuba. From billboards on road to daily TV propoganda, US is public enemy no.1 to Cuban citizens. Would understand why US citizens would like to spend their holiday in a place where locals have hostile attitude over them.
Don’t think this political change will bring much difference in Cuba. The island has a rythm of itself and outside inputs simply don’t have the force to change their mind set. The communism is something that suits them and probably, if it would have not been for the lack of goods, they will love continuing their life like this. This is a society that doesn’t value material things as much as others.
Beth,
Your comment about American companies and the Cuban environment is naive. First of all what do you think all of the Spanish resorts are like? They are walled off compound just like the ones you supposedly fear. European hoteliers don’t have any eco-friendly technology that American hoteliers don’t have. Time to stop with the anti-American rhetoric, it’s innacurate and weak.
Secondly Cuba is an environment disaster right now, especially in the cities. Canadian companies are exploiting Cuba’s mineral wealth. Other foreign companies are drilling for oil on Cuba’s coasts. Do you think they are being environmentally friendly? Don’t buy into the propaganda.
Christine,
Yes the Cubans believe their troubles are because of the embargo, or so they told you. But the REAL EMBARGO is the one the regime has on Cuba’s people. The U.S. isn’t the entity that has forbidden the right to private property or private commerce in Cuba. That’s the regime. I could go down the list. It’s all on the regime.
Removing the embargo DOES NOTHING to change the underlying structure of the Cuban political/economic system. What it does do is funnel cash into a dying regime so that they can repress the Cuban people for a few years more, all while millions of Americans enjoy their fruity cocktails in a secluded all-inclusive resort manned by slave labor. Yeah fantastic idea. Why didn’t I think of it.
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Henry,
Just visited your site. I can see you like to fight with people, and that’s cool, but here I’m not so into that. Especially when you turn people’s words around– for instance:
Gray asked me: “When you were in Cuba, did you talk to any of the residents about how they would feel about opening up the country to the US? Did they provide you with any insights about how that might be received by Cubans?”
I responded: “Yes, I talked to some folks and I think everyone wants the embargo lifted. It means more money for their country and a better standard of living for everyone. I mean that’s what Fidel always says… All of our problems are because of the embargo. There are even billboards–”The US Embargo costs us in one hour, what it would cost to do all of the xrays for the year for the whole country”. So there is a very strong feeling that they want this lifted.
But on the other hand, I don’t think they can even imagine what it will be like. As a tourist, visiting, and who has been to other places in the world, you know what a crowded, poorly managed tourist destination looks like.”
You obviously know a lot about Cuba. Is any of what I said untrue?
1. People in Cuba wants the embargo lifted. (And I clarified based on those I personally talked to).
2. Fidel blames everything on the embargo.
3. There are billboards there saying as much.
4. There is a strong feeling of wanting it lifted.
5. They probably can’t imagine what it will be like when that happens.
But your recent comment, in response, is clearly looking to pick a fight with me.
You wrote:
“Yes the Cubans believe their troubles are because of the embargo, or so they told you. But the REAL EMBARGO is the one the regime has on Cuba’s people. The U.S. isn’t the entity that has forbidden the right to private property or private commerce in Cuba. That’s the regime. I could go down the list. It’s all on the regime.
Removing the embargo DOES NOTHING to change the underlying structure of the Cuban political/economic system. What it does do is funnel cash into a dying regime so that they can repress the Cuban people for a few years more, all while millions of Americans enjoy their fruity cocktails in a secluded all-inclusive resort manned by slave labor. Yeah fantastic idea. Why didn’t I think of it.”
So in response you are telling me that the Embargo isn’t the real issue. I didn’t say that it was. I was responding to a question about what I was told when I was there. Then you talk about how American’s will “enjoy their fruity cocktails in a secluded all-inclusive resort manned by slave labor. Yeah fantastic idea. Why didn’t I think of it.” Well I’m actually opposed to that outcome. But it doesn’t matter, it has nothing to do with what I said. You’re not really responding to me anyway, you’re just looking for a forum to state your point of view. You have one. Your blog.
If you wanted a response you got one, but if you’re going to continue picking fights with people over things they didn’t say, then I have no problem deleting your comments.
Anyone who wants to disagree with me, is welcome. But don’t waste everyone’s time by putting words into other people’s mouths.
Great article, Christine. If the travel restrictions are lifted I think it would be poetic justice for Cuba to start charging American tourists $1000 for a visa. That would certainly control the subversive element, and pay for infrastructure. hehe.
Lifting the embargo, and American corporations moving in to fill the needs of increasing numbers of tourists, would be a death knell for the current regime. Whether they were ousted or bought off, change would result.
The embargo has allowed the government to continue its status quo. Cuba could continue another 50 years under a renewed embargo. Lifting it, and the massive changes that would result, would certainly destabilize the government. I don’t think Fidel et al have the power to deal with Ronald McDonald and his gang.
I wish I could visit Cuba right now. It most likely won’t be the same much longer.
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My take is simple and it’s the reverse of ‘Field of Dreams’: if they come, they will build it.
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I’ve been waiting for the embargo to be lifted, there is so much suffering because of it. I’m worried about the effect of mass American tourism, however. That’s never a good think in my experience.
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Stevo, while it would be rather ironic if Cuba were to charge a high visa fee, would that make economic sense? As Christine very accurately pointed out, tourists bring money, but don’t you think a huge visa fee would severely limit how attractive Cuba could look as a vacation option?
If the US Federal Govt. decides to do this, it’s in Cuba’s best interest to cooperate. More tourists means a more vibrant economy, even if it means destabilizing the existing regime. It’s coming sooner or later anyway.
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Interesting article, with a lot of salient points. right now, the infrastructure can’t handle it – and we’ve seen what too much tourism, all at once, can do to a place. thanks for this food for thought!
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The point is that it’s illegal for Congress to prevent us to travel to Cuba, or anywhere we choose to. I have a hard time understanding how they get away with this policy for so long. And I think it’s selfish to say to keep the embargo just because Cuba is not ready to provide the service level we want to expect.
The embargo has not done anything else than giving Fidel Castro a reason to blame the U.S. for everything that’s wrong in Cuba, and in the meantime giving a way of living to a bunch of politician pretending to care about the Cuban people. I’m sure Fidel Castro would find another reason to criticize the U.S. after the embargo is lifted, but it will be too late for him. That’s the only thing he is good at, to find what’s wrong with everybody but himself. What a disgusting little man!
If you look at other countries where the political situation suddenly allowed for an influx of visitors the change it brought was never that sudden. It will probably be a year or two before any sort of big changes start to happen at the street level in Cuba.
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It’s unbelievable that such a ban has lasted for 50 years…
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You are brave to tackle this sticky wicket Christine!
I won’t enter the fray (instead, visit my blog!), but I would like to clarify on one comment:
Simi said:
US is public enemy no.1 to Cuban citizens. Would understand why US citizens would like to spend their holiday in a place where locals have hostile attitude over them.
I have lived here for 7 years and one very interesting facet of all this is that Cubans have always differentiated between the US GOV and the US PEOPLE. Cubans are in no way hostile to people from the US. It’s actually the reverse: they love North Americans and not just becasue they’re the best tippers!
Anyway, all this debate makes a great point: come see for yourself and “saca tus propias conclusiones!”
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Just saw the comments, I have lived in Cuba for 10 years am married to a cuban lady, and have ,or she has, a house in Holguin.i been a musician there for 10years with 2 young cuban ladies we play rock and roll, and we have an abba show. sadly because i am a ‘transherro’ it is not possible for my trio to play at the beach. If dropping the travel restrictions on Americans coming in could help us play for tourists that would be great. A quick comment about the regime being ready for 3 million more tourists forget it, they have no idea how to organize anything on a grand scale, I have witnessed them to trying to book 400 cubans into a hotel. all at once//// oh dear me/// 3 mill mas , tu eres loca? ??The americans would never put up with the poor service.Rental Cars ,$90 dollars a day//.Good hotels anywhere from $180 a night to $300 a night and no hot water… one footnote cubans ,are the most friendly people in the world, and the ladies are the most beautiful, they love American and all tourists, people. good luck guys.. simon, ”supertrouper.”.. holguin cuba…