Travel Ban to Cuba Likely to be Lifted– Then What?

I don’t normally talk politics on here, but this subject fascinates me, so bear with me.

A bi-partisan bill was introduced into the House and Senate earlier this year, that would lift the 50 year ban on travel to Cuba.  Today the sponsoring senators reported that Congress is ready.  In political-speak this means they’ve talked to enough senators to know that if it went for a vote, it would pass.  Soon, Americans will be able to travel to Cuba.  Legally.

An estimated 3 million Americans would take them up on the offer.

To put that into perspective, there are currently about 1 million tourists from around the world that travel to Cuba each year.  We would multiple that by four. A 2002 study predicted a $1.2-1.6 billion travel industry would be created overnight.  23,000 new jobs.

Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself, but this brings up a lot of questions, namely:

What will this mean for Cuba?

I have a prediction.  Obama requested that the Cuba travel restriction be looked at– i.e. get rid of it.  But why?  Personally, I think he wants to lift the trade embargo.  Lifting the travel restriction is the first step, but after that, it seems inevitable.  Think about it.  If you go to Cuba as a tourist, can you bring back a t-shirt?  How about a box of Cuban cigars?  Will they be searching 3 million tourists for contraband?  Or go further than that.  Currently US companies can’t do business with Cuba.  But when the hoards arrive, they need to be fed, entertained, housed, and transported.  Are there enough cars?  Building materials?  Food?  Technology?  If you’re traveling to Cuba on vacation, will you be blocked from checking your US email?

Someone needs to supply Cuba with the goods and services to meet their new demand.  Will that business go straight to foreign companies or will US based firms start lobbying Congress to get their share?  What about US Cruise companies, can they dock in Havana?  Or travel agents booking hotels, flights, tours?  Especially if you consider that opening up travel to Cuba could decrease travel to US destinations– folks aren’t going to take more vacations, and a trip to Cuba might look better than say, Miami.  In effect we’re shifting travel dollars away from US companies.

If you lift the travel restriction, you have loosened the trade embargo.

It’s not a long leap of logic to think the rest of it could unravel too.  The trade embargo hasn’t worked.  It’s been 50 years.  And having a “sort-of” embargo, where you funnel a billion dollars into their economy but prevent the import of Cuban products (like cigars) is a watered down version of an unsuccessful tactic.  So how long will it be until we say, “what’s the point?”

So Cuba is opened to travel, but what will the tourists find?

Right now?  A crumbling infrastructure, a frustrating lack of goods, limited accommodations, outdated technology.  I’m not sure how they will handle the influx.  Will they move Cubanos further away from the cities in order to house the tourists?  Will they allow private enterprise?  Will the government create the infrastructure?  When I visited Cuba earlier this year, I remember watching the tourists walk by the major sites, and thought to myself– imagine if every person here was suddenly 3 or 4 people.   It would be staggering.

What about the Cubanos?

Here’s what we know:  tourists bring money.  Selling things on the street is already big business.  Some people have reported doctors quitting their practice to become waiters because they make more in tips.  But if you triple or quadruple the tourist volume, more and more people will make their living either selling things on the black market, working in the service industry or worse, the sex trade.  Part of what has worked for Fidel, is that everyone is equally poor in Cuba.  But if you can make $5 an hour selling stuff on the street, you will have a drastically different standard of living than the $20/mo average wage.  So will Cubanos become backdoor capitalists?

Is it possible to destabilize a country, simply by going there?

I’m excited for the travel restriction to be lifted.  But I’ve been to Cuba, I’ve seen how they live so I’m worried for them and how this will impact their lives.  This isn’t as straight forward as opening up the floodgates.  It’s been 50 years, and it’s wonderful that we’re removing the restriction, but I hope it’s done with some care and thought.  And if it becomes necessary, the US should be willing to assist Cuba with any of the consequences of our arrival.   I would hate to hear that Cubanos went without anything because of the new tourism or that they were unduly taken advantage of by predatory companies.

If you haven’t been to Cuba, now might be a really good time to go.  One thing is for sure, it will never be the same again.